African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) has committed more than R16 billion to two of South Africa's most significant mining investments in recent years, approving the development of its R15.2 billion Bokoni Platinum project in Limpopo while simultaneously giving the green light to restart operations at the Nkomati Nickel Mine in Mpumalanga.

The twin approvals position ARM to expand its exposure to two metals increasingly important to the global energy transition. Bokoni is expected to become one of South Africa's largest platinum group metals (PGM) producers over the next decade, while Nkomati will restore the country's only primary nickel mine to production.

The decisions also underscore growing confidence among major miners that the long-term fundamentals for PGMs and battery metals remain intact despite near-term commodity price volatility.

Bokoni becomes ARM's next long-life growth engine

ARM acquired Bokoni in September 2022, inheriting one of the Bushveld Complex's largest undeveloped platinum resources following years of operational challenges under previous ownership. Following completion of a DFS in June this year, ARM's board has approved a phased redevelopment that will transform the operation into a 180,000 tpm mine, supported by the refurbishment of an existing 60,000 tpm concentrator and construction of a new 120,000 tpm processing plant.

First production from the refurbished concentrator is scheduled for the first half of ARM's 2028 financial year, while the new concentrator is expected to be commissioned in the second half of FY2030.

At steady state, Bokoni is expected to produce 350,000-400,000 6E PGM oz annually, placing it among South Africa's most significant platinum operations. ARM said the project is expected to generate a post-tax net present value of R5.9 billion, an internal rate of return of 28%, and repay its investment within 6.3 years. The miner has described Bokoni as a strategic long-term asset anchored by a 329.4 Mt UG2 mineral resource grading 6.1g/t (6E), the country's second-largest PGM mineral resource base.

“Bokoni is a strategic, long-term growth asset underpinned by a large, high-grade UG2 mineral resource... The project presents a clear, long-term value-creation opportunity to scale ARM's PGM portfolio, enhance its global competitiveness and pursue further value-accretive organic growth,” the company says.

ARM adds that only around 13% of Bokoni's measured and indicated UG2 resources are expected to be mined during the initial 19-year concentrate purchase agreement, leaving substantial scope for future LoM extensions.

Hybrid mining strategy lowers execution risk

The approved development differs significantly from earlier plans. Following weak PGM prices and rising operating costs, ARM suspended mining and milling activities at Bokoni during FY2025 while reassessing the optimal mining method.

Instead of pursuing a fully mechanised operation, the revised development strategy adopts a hybrid mining approach, combining mechanised off-reef development with conventional stoping to improve ore grades while reducing capital intensity. The phased development also leverages Bokoni's existing underground infrastructure and concentrator, reducing project risk compared with a greenfield development.

ARM management says this brownfield approach was a key factor behind the board's confidence: “Management and the Board have a high level of confidence in the DFS. This is underpinned by the fact that Bokoni is a brownfield-led expansion, which materially derisks the project.”

At full production, Bokoni is expected to operate below the 50th percentile of the global PGM cost curve, strengthening ARM's existing platinum portfolio alongside Two Rivers and Modikwa.

ARM backs long-term platinum fundamentals

While battery electric vehicles continue to reshape automotive demand, ARM believes the long-term outlook for platinum group metals remains favourable.

The company expects industrial demand and continued use of PGMs in hybrid and internal combustion vehicles, combined with declining mine supply, to tighten the market over time. “Sustained underinvestment, accelerating shaft depletion in South Africa and structural decline across other producing regions are collectively expected to progressively reduce primary supply. These dynamics are expected to move the platinum market into deficit.”

Nkomati nickel returns after years on care and maintenance

Alongside Bokoni, ARM approved the restart of the Nkomati Nickel Mine, bringing South Africa's only primary nickel operation back into production. The mine has been on care and maintenance since 2021.

The restart follows completion of a feasibility study and supports ARM's recently announced nickel concentrate off-take agreement with Swedish metals company Boliden Commercial AB, subject to remaining conditions being satisfied. Plant refurbishment begins this month, while mining operations are expected to restart in October 2026.

The R753 million investment is expected to support a 13-year LoM, generating approximately 56,000 t of nickel concentrate annually and producing estimated free cash flow of R616 million per year at steady state. The project is forecast to generate a post-tax NPV of R764 million, an IRR of 28.36%, and recover invested capital within 5.3 years. ARM described the restart as a low-risk opportunity because it utilises existing mining and processing infrastructure.

ARM says the restart of Nkomati's open-pit nickel mining operations represents a low-risk, immediately actionable development opportunity... underpinned by a large polymetallic resource with a secured nickel concentrate off-take arrangement which re-establishes South Africa's only primary nickel producer.

Partnerships underpin project delivery

Both projects reflect the increasingly important role of partnerships in enabling new mining investment. At Bokoni, ARM intends funding to come from a combination of internal capital, project cash generation during ramp-up and external debt financing. At Nkomati, the restart is underpinned by the company's long-term concentrate off-take agreement with Boliden, which completed responsible sourcing due diligence earlier this year.

The projects also build on existing infrastructure rather than requiring entirely new developments, significantly lowering execution risk while supporting local employment, supplier opportunities and regional economic activity.

Why this matters for Mining Indaba 2027

ARM's decisions embody the central theme of Mining Indaba 2027 – “Stronger Together: Partnerships in Practice.”

Rather than announcing speculative greenfield discoveries, the company is demonstrating how partnerships between miners, financiers, equipment suppliers, processing partners and international customers can unlock existing assets.

Bokoni illustrates how long-term capital investment, engineering innovation and brownfield infrastructure can revive world-class mineral resources, while Nkomati highlights how strategic off-take agreements can catalyse the return of critical mineral production. Together, the two approvals represent one of the largest recent private mining investment commitments in South Africa and reinforce confidence that, despite challenging commodity cycles, major miners continue to invest in the country's long-term resource potential.