For much of the past five decades, Botswana has been defined, admired, even envied by its relationship with diamonds. Revenues from the sector financed infrastructure, education, and public institutions, while prudent governance helped Botswana avoid the excesses that have plagued many resource-rich economies. Diamonds did not merely fund growth; they shaped a national development model.

That model, however, is entering a new phase. Global diamond markets have become more volatile, consumer preferences are shifting, and technological change, most notably the rise of lab-grown stones has introduced long-term uncertainty. Against this backdrop, Botswana’s policymakers are recalibrating. The objective is not to displace diamonds, but to reduce over-reliance on them by broadening the country’s economic and mineral base.

Policy evolution, not rupture

Recent policy adjustments reflect this measured transition. Amendments to Botswana’s Mines and Minerals Act, effective from October 2025, introduce provisions that under specific circumstances, encourage greater local participation in new mining ventures. Where the state elects not to exercise its participation rights, companies may be required to offer a defined equity stake to local investors. The intention is to widen domestic participation in the sector while maintaining Botswana’s long-standing reputation for legal clarity and regulatory predictability.

In parallel, the government has reiterated its ambition to expand domestic mineral processing and downstream activities. This focus on beneficiation aligns with broader continental conversations on value addition and industrial development, while reflecting Botswana’s own experience in building cutting, polishing, and trading capacity in the diamond sector. The emphasis, officials stress, is on sequencing reforms in a manner that balances national development objectives with investor confidence.

Diamonds: continuity with adjustment

Diamonds remain central to Botswana’s economy and will continue to do so for decades. Discussions reported between the government and Anglo American, the majority shareholder in De Beers, are widely seen as part of a broader reassessment of how Botswana positions itself across the diamond value chain. Any potential restructuring, however, remains subject to commercial negotiations and regulatory processes.

At the operational level, investment in long-life assets continues. The transition of the Karowe Mine from open pit to underground mining is extending production horizons well into the 2040s. Such projects underscore Botswana’s preference for capital-intensive, long-term planning over short-term extraction.

Yet recent market conditions have highlighted the limits of even the best-managed diamond sector. Temporary production adjustments by Debswana in response to weaker global demand have reinforced the rationale for diversification rather than diminished confidence in the sector itself.
Broadening the minerals base

Botswana’s diversification strategy is increasingly visible in base and critical minerals. The Kalahari Copper Belt has emerged as a focal area for copper development, supported by existing operations and new exploration activity. Copper’s relevance to electrification and energy-transition technologies has elevated its strategic importance, both globally and within Botswana’s planning frameworks.

Alongside copper, interest is growing in manganese, nickel, cobalt, gold, and other minerals with industrial and technological applications. Projects under development or consideration are intended to complement and not replace diamonds, gradually building a more balanced mineral portfolio. This diversification is also spatial, extending mining-related infrastructure, services, and employment beyond traditional diamond-producing regions.

Technology and exploration

Technological innovation is playing a supportive role in this transition. Exploration companies operating in Botswana are increasingly applying data analytics and artificial intelligence to historical geological datasets. These tools are being explored as a means of improving exploration efficiency and prioritisation rather than guaranteeing outcomes. Botswana’s well-curated geological records provide a strong foundation for such approaches, reinforcing the country’s appeal to technically sophisticated investors.

Regional and international engagement

Botswana’s diversification agenda is unfolding within an open and pragmatic international posture. The government continues to engage a broad range of partners and investors, reflecting a long-standing policy of economic openness and non-alignment. Regional cooperation and peer exchanges on mineral governance also form part of this approach, drawing on Botswana’s experience while recognising the diversity of national contexts across Africa.

These engagements are framed not as geopolitical repositioning, but as practical efforts to expand access to capital, technology, and markets during a period of global transition in the mining sector.

A calibrated outlook

Economic growth is projected to recover modestly in 2026, supported by stabilising diamond production and gradual momentum in base-metal projects. Risks remain from commodity-price volatility to evolving consumer trends, but Botswana enters this phase with strong institutions, fiscal buffers, and a reputation for policy consistency.

What sets Botswana’s current trajectory apart is not abrupt change, but deliberate adjustment. A wider minerals base, deeper local participation, and expanded downstream activity signal an evolution of its development model that remains anchored in the foundations of past success.

Diamonds built Botswana’s modern economy. Diversification is intended to sustain it carefully, incrementally, and with an eye on long-term resilience rather than short-term disruption.

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Editor’s Disclaimer 

This article is published for information and analytical purposes only. The views expressed are those of the author and do not constitute investment advice, legal interpretation, or official policy positions of Investing in African Mining Indaba, its partners, or affiliated institutions. References to companies, governments, legislation, or projects are based on publicly available information at the time of publication and are subject to change. Mining Indaba does not endorse specific policy frameworks or commercial arrangements and encourages readers to undertake their own due diligence.