Tharisa has unveiled bold ambitions on the back of a sharp rally in PGM prices. The company’s timing could hardly be better: platinum has surged to levels not seen in more than a decade, offering a potentially lucrative tailwind.

A strong price backdrop

In 2025, platinum has emerged as one of the standout performers in the metals complex. It recently broke past the US $1,600/ounce mark, the highest level since 2013, driven by tight supply, rising investment demand, and robust industrial use. Some analysts even see the metal pushing toward US $2,000/ounce in the near term, underpinned by deficits, low above-ground inventories, and strong interest in catalytic, automotive, and green-hydrogen applications. For Tharisa, whose basket price for PGMs rose about 18.6 % in the year ending 30 September 2025, this price environment transforms what might otherwise have been a marginal expansion into potentially higher-margin growth.

The production leap: can they deliver?

Tharisa has guided 2026 PGM production (which includes platinum) to 145,000–165,000 ounces, up from 138,300 ounces in fiscal 2025. This marks a clear statement of confidence, especially after recent operational headwinds. In 2025, the company suffered some pit remediation challenges that weighed on performance, though the fourth quarter showed a rebound: PGM output jumped by 19.7 % quarter-on-quarter to 41,300 oz.

To underpin this growth, Tharisa is investing heavily in a phased transition to underground mining. The firm has committed US$547 million to this expansion over the next decade. The underground plan targets deeper reef horizons (especially the MG2 and MG4 chromitite layers) at depths of roughly 450 m, enabling the mine to access multigenerational resources beyond what the current open pit allows.

Importantly, first ore from underground operations is expected in Q2 of 2026, which aligns neatly with the company’s more aggressive production guidance. Down the line, the steady state underground design aims for more than 200,000 oz of PGMs annually, alongside more than 2 Mt of chrome concentrates.

Risks and caveats

Of course, delivering on such ambitious targets in a volatile mining context is never guaranteed. Some key risks include:

Operational execution risk: Transitioning from open pit to underground mining introduces complexities — ground stability, ventilation, water management, and capital ramp-up all need tight control
Cost inflation: Elevated input costs could erode margin leverage from higher prices. Platinum’s run is impressive, but markets are cyclical. A pullback could undermine the economics of aggressive expansion
Technological disruption: As more automotive fleets electrify, demand for catalytic PGMs could decline; though Tharisa is banking partly on platinum’s evolving role in hydrogen and fuel cell technologies
Regulatory, environmental, ESG pressures: Mining operations increasingly face scrutiny over ESG metrics, community relations, water use, emissions, and rehabilitation - any misstep could trigger costs or delays.

Tharisa’s strategy is audacious, but it is grounded in a favorable metals cycle. By coupling a rising price tailwind with investment in underground infrastructure, the company is aiming to leapfrog into a higher production trajectory. If the execution is smooth and market conditions remain supportive, Tharisa could emerge as one of the mid-tier PGM players punching above its weight. Whether it can turn the ambitious 2026 target into reality will depend on how well it manages technical, financial, and market risks - but for now, the stars seem to be aligning.

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