You might not think about the lithium, cobalt, or rare earths inside your phone or laptop, but these elements are the backbone of modern technology - and the epicenter of a global race for control. From electric vehicles to AI data centres, from renewable grids to missile systems, the world’s largest economies are competing fiercely for access to the minerals that make it all possible. And Africa, home to some of the planet’s richest reserves, sits squarely in the middle of this new strategic contest.

The global resource race enters a new phase

For two decades, China has dominated global critical minerals - not just mining them, but refining and processing them into the building blocks of the green and digital economy. Its influence stretches from cobalt in the DRC to bauxite in Guinea and rare earths in Tanzania. But the balance is beginning to shift. The United States has quietly overtaken China as the largest source of foreign direct investment in Africa, channelling US$7.8 billion in 2023 compared to China’s US$4 billion, according to the China Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University.

The surge is being driven by Washington’s International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), set up to counter Beijing’s strategic presence. Its investments target mines and supply chains that can feed directly into US industry - from Rwanda’s tin and tungsten to South Africa’s planned critical minerals refineries.

Africa’s leverage grows - but the risks remain

As global powers compete, African countries hold a growing degree of leverage. Yet the next decade will determine whether that leverage translates into lasting economic transformation. “Expecting Americans or anyone else to negotiate Africa’s best interests is unrealistic,” says Sepo Haihambo, economist and former FNB Namibia executive. “African governments must come to the table with clear objectives and frameworks that retain value locally.” Haihambo argues for a shift from “cash-for-ore” deals toward production-sharing agreements, local equity participation, and sovereign wealth models that invest in long-term development.

It’s an approach already taking root in places like Rwanda, where Trinity Metals, part-owned by the Rwandan government, operates tin, tantalum, and tungsten mines under stringent ethical and ESG standards. The company now exports directly to US refineries — a small but symbolic realignment of global supply chains.

Processing power: the missing link

If Africa’s next economic chapter is to be different from the last, local processing capacity will be key. Some progress is visible. ReElement Africa, a subsidiary of US-based American Resources Corporation, is building a critical minerals refinery in Gauteng, South Africa. CEO Ben Kincaid believes it marks a turning point: “By refining at the source, you capture more value, upskill labour, and build an economy around the resource. That’s the foundation for real industrial growth.”

However, such examples remain the exception. Most African states still face severe constraints — unreliable power, poor logistics, and limited technical capacity. Without large-scale infrastructure investment and stable policy environments, value addition will continue to lag behind rhetoric.

China: deep roots, quiet adjustments

Despite Western efforts to “de-risk” supply chains, China’s presence is not receding. Its state-backed and private firms have built resilient positions in strategic minerals, often supported by integrated infrastructure deals. Rather than retreat, Beijing is expected to adapt - deploying smaller, more commercially oriented players and blending resource investment with broader trade and technology partnerships. The outcome is likely to be a “China-plus-one” era, where Western and Chinese interests coexist uneasily within the same markets.

The ESG imperative

Ethical sourcing will become a decisive competitive factor over the next decade. Western buyers - from automakers to tech giants - are demanding traceable, low-carbon, conflict-free minerals. Companies that can certify origin, environmental integrity, and labour conditions will gain premium access to global markets. Those that can’t risk exclusion. As Trinity Metals’ Shawn McCormick puts it: “We’ve shown that you can produce these materials professionally, responsibly, and transparently - and still compete globally.”

A decade of divergence

By 2035, Africa’s critical minerals landscape will be both more competitive and more complex:

• China will remain the dominant processor, though less unchallenged.
• The US and allies will establish strategic footholds in “friend-shored” jurisdictions.
• Selective African winners - notably South Africa, Namibia, Rwanda, and Zambia - will move up the value chain.
• Others may remain locked in a familiar pattern: exporting ore, importing technology.

The difference will come down to governance, infrastructure, and negotiation capacity.

From resources to leverage

Africa’s minerals are no longer just commodities - they are strategic assets in a global realignment of power and production. The world’s demand for lithium, cobalt, and rare earths is surging, but what Africa does with that demand will define its next decade. The opportunity is vast; so are the pitfalls.

If African governments can combine industrial vision with investment discipline, the continent may finally break the cycle - moving from resource extraction to industrial transformation. The race for Africa’s critical minerals is not just about who digs - it’s about who decides what happens next.